Waves of Power

"From a commercial computing perspective, it is now standard practice to view the modern computer era as beginning in 1964."

"Beyond the staggering growth and wealth creation, the arrival of the personal computer, particularly the IBM PC, signaled the beginning of a fundamental and now well-understood IT industry paradigm shift."

"Looking back, it's worth remembering that a global market competitive outcome was not generally forecasted and indeed was not even widely recognized for some time."

"By the end of 1994, talk of stability, clarity, and smooth paths forward had disappeared. Once again, the industry paradigm had suddenly shifted."

"The pace of computer deployment is neither dramatically slower nor faster than that for telephones, automobiles, or televisions. All four have taken off rapidly and then slowed down as various demographic ceilings are reached."

"It is now clear that just as the system-centric world gave way to a PC-centric one, so too is the PC era passing in favor of a network-centric IT industry."

"Over the next decade or so, the four key industries?computers, communications, consumer electronics, and content using graphics?will be restructured in a manner that smoothes away many of today's market and competitive overlaps. "

"As the number of users and the range of technology applications swell and as consumer electronics, telecommunications, and even content spending become available to the IT marketplace the potential size of the business is almost unimaginable."

"As the network-centric era emerges, once again there has been active discussion about what will be the driving application of the Internet and what the overall rollout of applications will look like."

"The underlying metaphor of the "Network Computer" or "Internet appliance" is that at least some of this rapid pace of upgrading will shift away from the PC and out toward the network."

"The unique economics of both software and networks have combined to fundamentally alter standard software marketing techniques. Essentially, there are six key assumptions simultaneously at work."

"From a structural perspective, the Internet and the telephone industry could hardly be more different . . . But for key issues they are virtually mirror images of each other."

"If they can overcome their tendency to be slow, stodgy, and unresponsive, there is little reason to doubt that within a few years the telephone companies will be the dominant providers of consumer Internet access, especially if ISDN usage takes off."

"In terms of designing and building the hardware and software products that will drive the network-centric era, U.S. vendors remain extremely well positioned."

"As business moves out into the emerging cyberspace, the potential exists for much higher IT investment returns. Entire processes can move away from people and buildings and onto the network."

"As the network-centric era moves information technology closer to core business functions, industry variances are likely to increase. They will do so along lines defined by the nature of each individual sector."

"During 1994 and 1995 . . .the combination of rising PC penetration rates, aggressive marketing and the explosion of the Worldwide Web created vast new possibilities that captivated the minds of American businesspeople."

"It should be kept in mind that the entire history of the information technology industry is one of overcoming barriers to expanded use, and vendors all around the world are busy trying to translate today's problems into tomorrow's opportunities."

"The role of government must evolve over time, with different priorities at different phases of industry development."

"Once a high bandwidth infrastructure is ubiquitous, inexpensive, and easy to use, the industry, for the first time, will face the question of what can and cannot be done with computers, or perhaps more accurately, what makes sense and what doesn't."